The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited ...

We calibrate the boom size to match the observed increase in investment projected through 2027, implying that a boom raises AI-sector productivity by a factor of roughly 2.7. We then calibrate a ...

We find precise null effects of sharing research evidence, providing modest financial incentives, or offering implementation assistance to principals. In contrast, additional reminder calls increased ...

This paper quantitatively evaluates other countries' optimal tariffs and the prospects of sustaining international trade cooperation when a large player—the United States—exits the cooperative trade ...

In this paper, we combine field experiments with AI to explore new acoustic features of parental speech. Specifically, we develop a signal processing model that uses more than 600 hours of recorded ...

Between 2021 and 2024, the United States experienced one of the most severe inflation episodes in decades, coinciding with renewed debate over the role of economic conditions for electoral outcomes.

This paper asks whether regional wage differences can identify the effects of a national minimum wage. I study two common exposure-based approaches: effective-minimum-wage designs, which compare the ...

This paper examines intergenerational mobility across social classes during the late Qing dynasty employing a remarkable data set from Liaoning province in Northeast China. We identify two distinct ...

Carbon import tariffs, traditionally considered a complement to domestic climate policy, are increasingly proposed as standalone policies. We build a quantitative trade model to compare U.S. carbon ...

After substantial growth in the 1990s and 2000s, enrollment in the U.S. Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program has been declining since 2013. We use detailed administrative data to ...

Quantitative easing (QE) has been criticized for helping fuel the post-COVID inflation boom and causing large central bank losses. In this paper, we argue that QE should be evaluated mainly on its ...

We study how frontline supervisors shape outcomes in public organizations with competing objectives and limited monitoring. We examine lieutenants in the Chicago Police Department, exploiting its ...